Face the State

Face the State Staff Editorial

A recent Colorado poll shows the 2008 U.S. Senate race between presumed frontrunners, Mark Udall, a Democrat, and Bob Schaffer, a Republican, as a dead heat. This is good news for the state’s Republicans, still reeling from bloody primaries in at least three of the party’s last major races.

While we are cautious to comment on a race still more than a year away, the poll provides key indicators that are worth noting—signals that will likely benefit the GOP in a race projected by Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli to cost upwards of $30 million.

According to Ciruli, the September telephone poll of 504 statewide voters showed Udall leading Schaffer 36 percent to 35, with 9 percent of respondents saying they hoped someone else would join the race and 21 percent remaining undecided. The poll was sponsored by the Economic Development Council of Colorado.

While Colorado is home to 130,000 more Republicans than Democrats, Schaffer clearly cannot rely solely on his party’s registration advantage. With Democrats now maintaining control of the state legislature, Colorado’s other U.S. Senate seat, and the governor’s mansion for the first time in decades, he’ll still have some convincing to do.

The convincing will need to start within his own party. The poll showed Udall with 72 percent support from Democrats, 6 percent from GOP voters, and 34 percent from unaffiliated, while Schaffer fared slightly worse, with 68 percent support from GOP voters, 3 percent from Democrats, and 19 percent unaffiliated.

The fact is, however, that Schaffer’s numbers within his party—assuming he faces no viable primary opposition—can only rise as voters become more comfortable and familiar with the candidates. Voter hesitation is natural at this point as Republicans still lick their wounds in the aftermath of several rounds of the GOP beating up on its own.

In 2004, Schaffer faced a contentious primary against beer baron Pete Coors for Colorado’s other U.S. Senate seat. In 2006, Mark Holtzman nearly shredded Bob Beauprez in the party’s race for governor, and in the Fifth Congressional District, Doug Lamborn faced an incredibly tough and bruising battle from opponent Jeff Crank. At the end of the day, Lamborn was the only Republican out of those above to prevail in the general election.

Democrats benefitted wildly from the bloodbath, spending their summers attending cocktail party fundraisers that allowed them to build their arsenals for September advertising.

If the GOP is smart, it will line up behind Schaffer. As Ciruli’s early numbers indicate, he can win. The GOP must fight the temptation to turn to a big name “celebrity” as a nominee to replace Schaffer. Pete Coors was good at brewing beer—not so good at running for office. Another big name continuously floated — John Elway — should probably be left to throwing footballs and lending his name to restaurants.

Schaffer is a solid candidate and one that voters can and should get behind. He’s a man of his word and someone voters can trust. After serving three terms in Congress, he kept his term-limits pledge and returned to Colorado, where he remains active in education reform and currently sits on the state’s Board of Education.

Udall, on the other hand, has benefitted largely from attributes disconnected with his record. He’s good looking (which might help explain his 11 point advantage with women in Ciruli’s poll). But after five terms of representing Boulder in Colorado’s Second Congressional District, can he escape an inevitably liberal voting record?

Unlike Ken Salazar, who topped Coors in Colorado’s 2006 U.S. Senate contest, and Bill Ritter — who beat out Beauprez in the state’s gubernatorial race — Udall has a serious decade-long liberal record that Republicans will eagerly publicize to the state’s moderate and conservative voters.

While both candidates are still in the early stage of identifying themselves — and each other — to voters, it appears that Udall’s camp is already stepping into questionable territory. According to Rocky Mountain News coverage of Ciruli’s poll, Udall’s campaign manager, Mike Melanson, tried to paint Schaffer as not being pro-tax enough. He specifically alleged that Schaffer will have problems shoring up his GOP base because of his opposition to last year’s Referendum C.

By attacking Schaffer for this opposition—a position shared by nearly half the state’s voters in the general election—Udall risks the backlash and fatigue of voters who felt they were misled on the tax measure—initially projected to cost taxpayers $3 billion—but just a year later expected to eliminate nearly $6 billion in tax savings. That’s real money.

For Udall, promoting a pro-tax message is also risky as both parties duke it out over Gov. Ritter’s current statewide property tax increase, and Denver voters debate Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s $550 million 9-part tax increase this November. Ultimately, Udall may not want to remind voters that he has been part of a Congress that has boosted federal spending to record levels.

With a distinct voter registration advantage and a solid candidate, Schaffer and his fellow Republicans can rebuild GOP self-esteem statewide with this election. In the end, this race is theirs to lose.