In an interesting front-page Denver Post feature today, reporter Michael Riley focuses on how Jefferson County, the state's second most populous county, decides elections right almost every time.
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"Just as there are bellwether states - Missouri has famously picked every president since John F. Kennedy - there are bellwether counties, and in terms of channeling Colorado politics, Jefferson County is as close as it gets," Riley writes.
While Riley may be right about this fact, he unfortunately misses a few root causes of Jefferson County's ability to pick candidates. It all comes down to basic math.
From a logistical perspective, it makes sense that Jefferson would determine Election Day outcomes.
Jeffco residents vote. And they vote a lot more than their peers in other counties. While 238,236 of Denver's 555,836 residents cast a presidential ballot in 2004, with nearly 70 percent voting for Democrat John Kerry, 271,568 of Jefferson County's 525,119 registered voters turned out that year, with nearly 52 percent giving their votes to George W. Bush.
What do these stats mean come Election Day? Despite a population disadvantage of more than 30,000, Jeffco produced 33,000 more voters than Denver at ballot boxes that year.
Nearby Arapahoe County came in close with 232,365 of its 522,017 residents turning out in 2004, with 51 percent of the vote going for Bush.
Also noticeably absent from Riley's piece is any mention of the impact of union money. He's right that Dems now outnumber Republicans eight to four in the state legislature. But he fails to mention why. As Face The State has reported previously, union money over the last two cycles has helped Democrats take over key Jeffco House and Senate seats, including Arvada's Senate District 19. In 2004, Democrats and unions outspent Republicans and their supporters by more than $400,000 to help Sue Windels keep her seat.
From Riley's perspective, it's all about messaging and shifting demographics (unaffiliated voters in Jeffco now outnumber Ds and Rs). This may be true. But in voter-happy Jeffco, it's also about which message voters actually get to hear.